Did you know that college enrollment numbers have followed a complicated path over the past 15 years? Total undergraduate enrollment peaked in 2010 at about 18.1 million, declined steadily through 2021, and is now staging a modest recovery, with Fall 2025 enrollment reaching about 16.2 million undergraduates (and 19.4 million total postsecondary students when graduate enrollment is included). However, this headline number masks significant ongoing shifts. In this article, we’ll look at where college enrollment stands today, what has happened with the much-anticipated “enrollment cliff” that began in 2025, and what these trends mean for current applicants and incoming college students.
First, though, the data:
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting and analyzing data related to education. If you’d like to nerd out on some numbers, the NCES tracks total undergraduate fall enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, and provides breakdowns according to attendance status (full or part-time), sex and ethnicity of student, and type of institution (public or private). The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) also publishes near-real-time enrollment data, including provisional figures for each fall semester.
According to NCES and NSCRC data:
- Undergraduate college enrollment increased from 1985-2010 at a rate of about 2.2% each year. In 2010, enrollment peaked at about 18.1 million students.
- From 2011-2021, enrollment decreased at a rate of about 1.5% each year.
- Enrollment reached its lowest point in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, at about 15.4 million undergraduates.
- Enrollment ticked back up gradually starting in 2022. By Fall 2025, undergraduate enrollment had recovered to about 16.2 million, with total postsecondary enrollment at 19.4 million.
- Total postsecondary enrollment is now back at pre-pandemic 2019 levels, though the composition has shifted significantly.
This overview doesn’t provide the whole story, however, particularly in terms of demographics. The rates of enrollment among men have dropped more significantly than among women. Women now make up about 58% of total undergraduate enrollment (8.8 million students), and men about 42% (6.4 million students). Meanwhile, application and enrollment rates among low-income students, first-generation students, students of color, and other underserved populations have followed an uneven path, with community colleges still serving roughly 250,000 fewer students than they did before the pandemic.
US College Enrollment Decline – Enrollment Cliff (Continued)
Indeed, declining enrollment has not affected all types of colleges equally. Two-year colleges experienced sharp declines during the pandemic and have only partially recovered. Four-year private colleges (both for-profit and nonprofit) are now experiencing sustained declines as the demographic cliff begins to bite, while four-year public colleges have been the steadiest performers throughout the past decade.
- Enrollment at 2-year public colleges decreased by 38% between 2010-2021, then ticked back up 3% in Fall 2025 alone.
- Enrollment at 2-year for-profit private colleges decreased by about 59% between 2010-2021.
- Enrollment at 4-year private for-profit colleges decreased by about 54% between 2010-2021, with another 2% drop in Fall 2025.
- Enrollment at 4-year public colleges increased by 15.1% between 2010-2021 and grew another 1.4% in Fall 2025.
- Enrollment at 4-year private nonprofit colleges remained essentially flat from 2010-2021, but declined 1.6% in Fall 2025, the first significant drop for this category.
That last figure is the most newsworthy of the Fall 2025 data. Four-year private nonprofit colleges had been one of the bright spots in earlier enrollment trends, but they are now showing signs of strain as the cliff begins to hit. As one NSCRC analyst put it, the American higher education system has “regained its size, but not its shape.”
Why is College Enrollment Declining?
There is no single reason for the decline in college enrollment. Instead, there are many contributing (and interrelated) factors, including:
1) Continued Decline in National Birth Rate
It turns out that a major part of the reason behind the enrollment cliff is quite simple. The national birth rate has been declining steadily for, drumroll please, the past 19 years. According to the CDC, the general fertility rate fell to 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 in 2025, a 23% decline from the 2007 peak. The total fertility rate hit an all-time low of 1.599 children per woman in 2024 (well below the 2.1 replacement rate). Fewer births 18 years ago translates to fewer prospective college students today.
Between 2007-2009, according to the CDC, the national birth rate decreased more rapidly than during any other two-year period in recent history. The plummet in births can be attributed to the Great Recession, but since then birth rates have continued to fall almost every year. The number of US births has dropped from 4.3 million in 2007 to about 3.6 million in 2025.
The declining birth rate is the primary reason college enrollment numbers, particularly at four-year private colleges, are not expected to recover meaningfully until 2037 or later. The pool of 18-year-olds is projected to keep shrinking through at least 2039.
2) Decreased Immigration and Declining International Enrollment
The foreign-born population in the United States declined between 2018-2021 due to policy restrictions on immigration and as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. As with the decreased birth rate, a decrease in the immigrant population translates to a decrease in the college-age population over the long term.
After a brief recovery in 2022-2024, international student enrollment is now under significant pressure again. The Trump administration’s 2025 visa restrictions and broader immigration policy changes have led to sharp declines in international applicants at many universities, particularly at schools that had built business models around international tuition revenue. Industry estimates suggest the international enrollment drop could represent revenue losses approaching $7 billion across the US higher education system. International students account for substantial percentages of the student body at some institutions, so any sudden shifts have rippling effects on enrollment numbers and on colleges’ revenue (particularly since international students tend to qualify for and receive far less in financial aid).
3) The Lingering Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Even as many colleges introduced admissions-related policy changes during the pandemic (particularly test-optional policies), enrollment numbers fell to their lowest levels in 2021. We know that there were greater pandemic impacts on underrepresented students, and that the effects of the pandemic on certain demographics continue to influence rates of college enrollment more than five years later.
Community colleges have been particularly affected. Despite a 3% Fall 2025 increase in community college enrollment, two-year public colleges are still serving roughly 250,000 fewer students than they did in 2019. Many students who postponed or skipped college during the pandemic have not returned, and the gap is even wider for low-income and first-generation students. While total enrollment has recovered to pre-pandemic levels in aggregate, the composition has shifted away from community colleges and toward bachelor’s-degree-seeking students.
4) Rising Tuition Costs and Doubts Regarding the “Value” of a College Degree
The average college tuition cost increased yet again during the 2024-2025 academic year across both public and private schools. Moreover, cost-of-living expenses have been rising significantly, affecting the cost of housing, books, and food. New York University’s tuition is $62,796, but with the cost of room and board, books and supplies, and transportation and personal expenses, the total anticipated cost is about $87,472. The University of Michigan-Ann Arbor’s tuition has climbed to roughly $19,000 for in-state students and over $60,000 for out-of-state students. Kenyon College’s total cost of attendance has reached $89,600.
Many colleges are amping up affordability and accessibility efforts. NYU’s new tuition-free policy for families earning under $100,000 (announced for the Class of 2029) and similar moves at Harvard ($200,000 income threshold), MIT ($200,000), and Princeton ($100,000) have made elite private schools more affordable than ever for middle-income families. Still, over the past 20 years, even adjusting for inflation, tuition and fees at private colleges have risen about 40%, out-of-state tuition and fees at public colleges have risen about 38%, and in-state tuition and fees at public colleges have risen a whopping 56%.
US College Enrollment Decline – Enrollment Cliff (Continued)
While political views on the value and purpose of higher education are polarized, there is bipartisan concern about rising tuition costs, and widespread disillusionment with student debt. The political environment around student loans has shifted significantly in the past two years. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed in July 2025, eliminates the Grad PLUS loan program effective July 2026 and caps graduate borrowing at $20,500 per year ($100,000 lifetime). Parent PLUS borrowing will be capped at $20,000 per year ($65,000 lifetime per student). The SAVE, PAYE, and ICR repayment plans will also be phased out starting July 2026. These changes will reshape how families finance college, particularly for graduate and professional school.
Meanwhile, many high school students who would previously be considered “college-bound” are exploring options for satisfying and well-paying careers that do not require a college degree. Vocational and trade program enrollment grew by about 11.7% in Spring 2025, more than five times the 2.1% growth rate for bachelor’s programs. Certificate program enrollment jumped 28% in Fall 2025. Minimum wages have continued increasing, unemployment remains relatively low, and the proliferation of options for working remotely have mitigated many cost-of-living and transportation-related expenses for young professionals. All of these factors are contributing to the continued shift away from traditional four-year degree paths.
5) FAFSA Status: From Crisis to Recovery
The Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) determines a student’s eligibility for all types of financial aid, from federal loans to work-study jobs. Each year, more than 17 million students submit the FAFSA. The 2024-25 application cycle was disastrous for FAFSA: the redesigned form launched months late, suffered persistent technical glitches, and prevented colleges from compiling timely financial aid packages for admitted students. Many students were forced to commit to a school by May 1 without knowing what they would owe.
The good news is that the 2025-26 and 2026-27 cycles have brought meaningful FAFSA recovery. The 2026-27 form opened on time on October 1, 2025, for the first time in three years. The Department of Education implemented major improvements, including instant FSA ID account verification (eliminating the previous multi-day wait), simplified contributor invites, and built-in IRS Data Retrieval. The form now has about 35 questions, down from more than 100 in the pre-simplification era. By late October 2025, more than 1.3 million high school seniors had completed the 2026-27 FAFSA, a 9.8% increase from the same point in the comparable 2023 cycle.
US College Enrollment Decline – Enrollment Cliff (Continued)
That said, families still face new complications under the 2025 OBBBA legislation. Pell Grant eligibility rules are tightening starting July 2026, and the new borrowing caps will require more families to either reduce college costs or seek private loans. Several Pell Grant programs are also subject to ongoing reviews under the current administration’s Department of Education restructuring.
What Does the Enrollment Cliff Actually Look Like Now That It’s Here?
The expected “enrollment cliff” began with the 2025-2026 academic year, as predicted. However, the cliff has not played out exactly as many higher-ed analysts forecast. Total enrollment actually grew slightly in Fall 2025 (up 1%), and undergraduate enrollment grew 1.2%. So where is the cliff actually showing up?
The answer is at the institutional level. While total enrollment has held steady, college closures have accelerated dramatically. At least 16 nonprofit colleges announced closures in 2025, matching the 2024 total. Another 8 announced closures in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Since 2020, roughly 80 private nonprofit colleges have closed or merged, affecting more than 52,000 students. The Hechinger Report projects that 442 private nonprofit four-year colleges, more than 25% of the total, are at moderate to significant risk of closing or merging within the next decade. Huron Consulting estimates that nearly 400 schools could vanish, affecting around 600,000 students and redistributing about $18 billion in endowment funds.
The schools most at risk share common characteristics: small enrollments (under 2,000 students), heavy dependence on tuition revenue, limited endowments, and locations in regions with declining populations (particularly the Midwest, Northeast, and parts of California). Recent closures include Cazenovia College (NY), Trinity Christian College (IL), Hampshire College (MA), and Anna Maria College (MA). Siena Heights University in Adrian, Michigan announced its closure for June 2026 after enrollment fell 30 to 70 percent over the decade.
Meanwhile, large public flagships, well-endowed private universities, and the most selective liberal arts colleges have proven resilient. Schools at the top of every selectivity tier continue to see record application numbers.
What Does the Enrollment Cliff Mean for Prospective Students?
The enrollment cliff is real, but its effects are unevenly distributed. Both 2-year colleges and small-to-mid-sized private colleges face the greatest impact. Enrollment at large public 4-year flagships and at top-tier selective privates will likely remain stable or continue growing. Schools located in states or regions with declining populations will see more enrollment decline than those in growing states.
Moreover, colleges’ financial aid offerings and overall financial health will inform how they weather the cliff. Schools with large endowments can absorb tuition discounting; schools without that cushion are more likely to close, merge, or significantly cut programs.
What does all of this mean for the immediate future of prospective students? Generally speaking, the enrollment cliff has not translated into higher admission rates at the most competitive schools. The Class of 2029 admissions cycle delivered record-low acceptance rates at Caltech (2.57%), Columbia (4.29%), Vanderbilt (4.7%), Duke (4.8%), Penn (4.9%), and Johns Hopkins (5.14%). The top of the selectivity pyramid has only gotten more competitive. Likewise, tuition increases will proceed regardless of the cliff.
US College Enrollment Decline – Enrollment Cliff (Continued)
Enrollment declines do hurt revenue, though. Therefore, as enrollment continues to decline at vulnerable schools, we will likely see institutions scrambling to accommodate by:
- Cutting offerings (reducing the number of majors, eliminating certain programs or courses)
- Continuing to raise tuition and fees
- Increasing recruitment efforts among international students or other students who can pay full tuition, despite the current visa restrictions making this strategy harder
- Merging with or being acquired by larger institutions
- Adding online programs and adult-learner pathways to broaden the applicant pool
Again, the effects of the enrollment cliff will be experienced unevenly across types of schools, regions, and demographics. For prospective students, the most important takeaway is to research a school’s financial health (look at recent enrollment trends, endowment per student, and accreditation status) before committing. The risk of attending a college that closes mid-degree is real for the next decade, particularly at smaller private institutions.
In the meantime, despite the US college enrollment shifts, data demonstrates that Americans continue to associate college education with social and financial mobility. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s educational attainment data, around 44% of Americans 25 and older hold some type of college degree. Adults with college degrees outearn, on average, those without college degrees, and that earnings gap has actually widened over the past decade despite all the public discussion about college value.
