Boston University offered 15,339 applicants a place on its waitlist for fall 2024. Of those, 8,996 accepted the offer and waited. Eighteen were admitted. Carnegie Mellon’s numbers were similar: 16,484 offers, 10,062 students who stayed on the list, and 32 admissions. A student who chose to wait had roughly a one-in-500 chance of hearing yes at BU and a one-in-300 chance at Carnegie Mellon.
Those figures are not unusual among highly selective colleges, and they are not universal either. UCLA admitted 1,211 students from its waitlist the same year. Tufts admitted 354. The University of California, Santa Barbara admitted 8,715. A waitlist offer can mean almost anything, and the letter itself rarely says which.
This report uses the waitlist figures that colleges publish in their Common Data Set filings to sort out what a waitlist offer meant at 205 colleges for fall 2024. The data are consistent with a system built mainly to protect colleges against uncertainty about how many admitted students will enroll. At the most selective colleges in the sample, the typical waitlist was two to three times the size of the entering class, and the typical college admitted a few percent of the students who waited. Further down the selectivity scale, the same tool worked very differently, and a waitlist offer was often a real second chance.
The data behind this report
Every college that publishes a Common Data Set reports three waitlist numbers in section C2: how many applicants were offered a place on the waitlist, how many accepted that place, and how many were eventually admitted from it. College Transitions compiles those figures each year for 362 colleges. For fall 2024 admission, 266 of them reported having a waitlist, and 207 reported all three numbers with at least one student accepting a place.
Two of those 207 are excluded. The University of California, Irvine reported the same figure, 6,259, for students who accepted a place and students admitted, and an outside summary of UC admissions data gives different counts. The figures compiled for the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign could not be matched to the fall 2024 cycle with confidence. Rather than substitute numbers from secondary sources, this report leaves both colleges out, which leaves a sample of 205.
Two rates follow from the published numbers. The waitlist admit rate is the share of students who accepted a place and were later admitted. The acceptance share is the share of students offered a place who chose to stay on the list. This report also compares each college’s waitlist offers with the size of its enrolled first-year class. All of these are college-level figures from a single past cycle. They describe what happened to a college’s waitlist as a whole, not the chances of any individual student, whose outcome can depend on residency, intended major, financial aid, and the college’s priorities that year.
| Measure | Fall 2024 |
| Colleges in the sample | 205 |
| Waitlist offers | 714,665 |
| Students who accepted a place on the waitlist | 376,160 |
| Students admitted from the waitlist | 82,527 |
| Pooled acceptance share | 52.6% |
| Pooled waitlist admit rate | 21.9% |
| Median waitlist admit rate (typical college) | 16.9% |
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, section C2, for the fall 2024 entering class. Acceptance share = students accepting a place divided by offers. Waitlist admit rate = students admitted from the waitlist divided by students accepting a place. Pooled rates sum all 205 colleges; the median is the middle college. Excluded: colleges reporting incomplete figures, figures from an earlier year, or no students accepting a place, plus UC Irvine and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (see text).
The sample is not a random cross-section of American colleges. It consists of the colleges College Transitions tracks, which lean selective and private, and it includes only those that reported complete waitlist figures. The findings describe these 205 colleges, not higher education as a whole.
The pooled figures also overstate the odds at most colleges in the sample. A handful of large public universities admit thousands of students from their lists, and they pull the pooled rate up. The seven University of California campuses in the sample account for 24,928 of the 82,527 waitlist admissions, or 30 percent. The median college admitted 16.9 percent of the students who waited, and the middle half of colleges ranged from 5.2 percent to 40.2 percent.
A wide spread of outcomes
No single number describes a waitlist. Fifty of the 205 colleges admitted fewer than 5 percent of the students who waited, the largest of the five groups in Figure 1. Another 41 admitted half or more. The colleges admitting half or more include large public universities such as the University of Pittsburgh, at 86.5 percent, and Michigan State University, at 87 percent, along with private universities such as Texas Christian University, at 82.8 percent. At those colleges, staying on the list was more likely than not to end in an offer.
Figure 1. Distribution of waitlist admit rates, fall 2024
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, section C2, 205 colleges. Waitlist admit rate = students admitted from the waitlist divided by students accepting a place.
That split points to two different uses of the same tool. At many colleges that admit a large share of their applicants, the waitlist appears to work as a regular part of the admission process, a pool the college draws from once deposits come in. At the most selective colleges, it more often looks like a reserve that is rarely touched.
Selectivity and the waitlist
Grouping colleges by their overall acceptance rate shows how closely waitlist outcomes track selectivity. At the 47 colleges that admitted fewer than 20 percent of applicants, the median waitlist admit rate was 4.5 percent. At the 98 colleges that admitted half or more of their applicants, it was 32.8 percent, roughly seven times higher.
| Overall acceptance rate | Colleges | Median acceptance rate | Waitlist offers per enrolled first-year | Share who accept a place | Waitlist admit rate |
| Under 10% | 17 | 7% | 2.15 | 76.3% | 4.5% |
| 10% to 19% | 30 | 14% | 3.32 | 56.4% | 4.3% |
| 20% to 34% | 22 | 27% | 2.80 | 47.8% | 9.6% |
| 35% to 49% | 35 | 43% | 1.76 | 43.3% | 18.4% |
| 50% and up | 98 | 71.5% | 0.49 | 44.4% | 32.8% |
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, sections C1 and C2, fall 2024. All figures except the college count are medians within each group. Three colleges without a reported acceptance rate are omitted, so the groups total 202. Offers per enrolled first-year = waitlist offers divided by first-year students enrolled.
Figure 2. Median waitlist admit rate by overall acceptance rate, fall 2024
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, sections C1 and C2. Waitlist admit rate = students admitted from the waitlist divided by students accepting a place. Values are medians across colleges in each group, not probabilities for individual students.
In this sample, the two most selective groups had nearly identical medians, 4.5 and 4.3 percent. Median waitlist admit rates rose in each group after that, to 9.6 percent among colleges admitting 20 to 34 percent of applicants and 18.4 percent among those admitting 35 to 49 percent. Single-year medians like these describe this cycle’s colleges; they do not establish a fixed threshold.
Same selectivity, very different lists
Selectivity sets the general range, but colleges with nearly identical acceptance rates ran their waitlists in opposite ways. Among the 50 colleges admitting 20 to 49 percent of applicants with at least 100 students on the list, waitlist admit rates ran from under 1 percent to more than 80 percent.
Fairfield University and UC Santa Barbara each admitted 33 percent of applicants for fall 2024. Fairfield admitted 22 of the 2,477 students who accepted a place on its waitlist. UC Santa Barbara admitted 8,715 of 10,641, or 81.9 percent. Stony Brook University, at a 49 percent acceptance rate, admitted 12 of 2,894. Texas Christian University, at 44 percent, admitted 753 of 909.
Smaller private colleges in this range showed the same split. Whitman College admitted 12 of 1,160 waitlisted students and Connecticut College 9 of 607, while Brandeis University admitted 336 of 616. For a student deciding whether a waitlist place is worth holding, the college’s own history tells far more than its acceptance rate.
Why the lists are so long
Selective colleges do not offer a few hundred waitlist places. They offer thousands. The median college admitting 10 to 19 percent of applicants offered 3.32 waitlist places for every first-year student it enrolled. Forty-two of the 47 colleges below a 20 percent acceptance rate offered more waitlist places than they had students in the entering class.
Figure 3. Median waitlist offers per enrolled first-year student, fall 2024
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, sections C1 and C2. Offers per enrolled first-year = waitlist offers divided by first-year students enrolled.
The Common Data Set does not say why colleges build lists this large, but the timing of admissions offers a likely reason. A college cannot know in April how many admitted students will deposit, and it cannot know which of its waitlisted students will still be available in May, since some will have committed elsewhere. A long list gives the college options. It may also let a college look for particular students, such as applicants for an under-enrolled major or from an under-represented region, once deposits arrive.
At some colleges the ratio is extreme. Carnegie Mellon offered 9.1 waitlist places for every first-year student it enrolled. Colby College offered 8.1, and the University of Miami offered 7.3.
Figure 4. Largest waitlists relative to class size, colleges admitting under 20 percent, fall 2024
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, sections C1 and C2. Ratio = waitlist offers divided by first-year students enrolled.
Carnegie Mellon admitted 32 of the 10,062 students who stayed on its list. Colby admitted 82 of 1,829, a rate of 4.5 percent. The University of Miami offered 18,078 places for an entering class of 2,473 and admitted 681 of the 7,364 students who stayed on the list.
Most students at the top keep their place
Roughly half of all students offered a waitlist place accept it, but the share rises sharply at the top. At the 17 colleges admitting under 10 percent of applicants, the median acceptance share was 76.3 percent. At Middlebury, 2,256 of the 2,285 students offered a place accepted it. Students treat a waitlist offer from a highly selective college as worth holding, even when the odds are slim.
Figure 5. Median share of students who accept a waitlist place, fall 2024
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, sections C1 and C2. Acceptance share = students accepting a place divided by waitlist offers.
Tufts was a notable exception. Only 991 of the 2,800 students it offered a place, about 35 percent, chose to stay, and Tufts went on to admit 354 of them. Its 35.7 percent waitlist admit rate was the highest among the 47 colleges in the sample admitting under 20 percent of applicants.
A high acceptance share makes a long list even more crowded. At colleges admitting 35 percent or more of applicants, fewer than half of the students offered a place typically stayed on, which thins the competition for the seats that do open.
Where the waitlist is a second round
At the other end of the spectrum, several large public universities admit thousands of students from their waitlists each year. For them, the list functions much like a second admission round that opens once the first round’s deposits are counted.
| College | Accepted a place | Admitted from waitlist | Waitlist admit rate | Overall acceptance rate |
| UC Santa Barbara | 10,641 | 8,715 | 81.9% | 33% |
| University of Tennessee, Knoxville | 5,954 | 4,787 | 80.4% | 42% |
| UC San Diego | 19,156 | 4,539 | 23.7% | 27% |
| UC Davis | 9,609 | 4,309 | 44.8% | 42% |
| University of Pittsburgh | 4,338 | 3,754 | 86.5% | 58% |
| Michigan State University | 4,134 | 3,596 | 87.0% | 85% |
| UC Santa Cruz | 10,111 | 3,339 | 33.0% | 66% |
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, sections C1 and C2, fall 2024. Colleges shown admitted the most students from their waitlists in the sample. Waitlist admit rate = students admitted from the waitlist divided by students accepting a place. UC Irvine is excluded from the sample; see text.
UC Santa Barbara admitted more students from its waitlist, 8,715, than it enrolled in its entire first-year class of 5,008. Not all of those students were expected to enroll. A waitlist admission is still an offer the student can decline, and some students admitted in May and June will already have committed elsewhere.
Students waitlisted at large public universities, particularly the University of California campuses, should treat the offer as a live option. At UC San Diego, the most selective college in this table, nearly one in four students who stayed on the list was admitted.
Inside the most selective colleges
Among the 17 colleges that admitted fewer than 10 percent of applicants, waitlist admit rates ranged from 1.3 percent at Amherst College and Dartmouth College to 29.4 percent at the U.S. Naval Academy. Amherst admitted 8 of the 623 students who stayed on its list, and Dartmouth admitted 29 of 2,189. Princeton and the University of Pennsylvania each admitted 2.9 percent.
Figure 6. Waitlist admit rates at colleges admitting under 10 percent of applicants, fall 2024
Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, section C2. Waitlist admit rate = students admitted from the waitlist divided by students accepting a place. Orange bars mark rates of 10 percent or higher. *The Naval Academy’s admission process, which requires most candidates to secure a nomination and pass medical and fitness screening, differs from that of the other colleges shown.
Four colleges in this group stand apart. The Naval Academy admitted 70 of 238 waitlisted candidates, though its process has little in common with a typical admission office. Caltech admitted 41 of 171. UCLA and Williams College each admitted 13.2 percent, though UCLA’s figure covered 1,211 students and Williams’s covered 113.
Stanford and Yale admitted 25 and 23 students, respectively. Their lists were modest by the standards of the group, with 414 and 565 students accepting a place, so even these small counts produced waitlist admit rates of 6.0 and 4.1 percent, at or above their overall acceptance rates of 4 percent.
When the waitlist beats the front door
At some selective colleges, students who accepted a waitlist place were admitted at a higher rate than applicants as a whole. Six colleges admitting under 20 percent of applicants had a waitlist admit rate at least one and a half times their overall acceptance rate.
Figure 7. Overall acceptance rate compared with waitlist admit rate, fall 2024
Note: Waitlisted students are a pre-screened group the college already judged admissible, so the two rates describe different populations and are not a measure of which route is easier. Source: College Transitions analysis of 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings, sections C1 and C2. Overall acceptance rates are rounded to the nearest whole percent. Colleges shown admitted under 20 percent of applicants and had a waitlist admit rate at least 1.5 times their overall acceptance rate.
Tufts admitted 354 of the 991 students on its list, or 35.7 percent, against an overall acceptance rate of 12 percent. Caltech admitted 24 percent of its waitlisted students while admitting 3 percent of all applicants. Vassar, Williams, Stanford, and the Naval Academy followed the same pattern.
These comparisons should be read carefully. Waitlisted students are already a screened group, so their rates naturally run higher than those of the full applicant pool. The pattern does not suggest that a waitlist is an easier route in. It shows that at these colleges, in this cycle, a waitlist offer reflected a real chance.
Early decision and the waitlist
Colleges that fill a large share of their class through binding early decision tend to admit few students from their waitlists. Among colleges that reported early decision admits, those that filled 40 percent or more of their entering class through early decision had a median waitlist admit rate of 6.4 percent, compared with 28.6 percent at colleges filling less than 20 percent of the class that way.
Much of that gap appears to reflect selectivity. Heavy early decision users are concentrated among the most selective colleges. Within the group admitting fewer than 35 percent of applicants, colleges filling 40 percent or more of the class early had a median waitlist admit rate of 5.4 percent, against 8.5 percent for the eight colleges in that group filling less of the class early. With so few colleges in the second group, these medians cannot separate the two factors.
What the filings leave out
The Common Data Set records how many students were offered a place, how many accepted it, and how many were admitted, but several details that shape a waitlisted student’s experience go unreported. The filings do not show when waitlist offers went out, so a college that admits 300 students from its list in early May looks the same as one that admits them in late July. They do not show how many admitted students enrolled, or whether those students received the same financial aid as students admitted in the first round.
Section C2 does ask whether a college ranks its waitlist. Both Tulane and American University reported in their 2025-2026 filings that their lists are not ranked, which means the college can choose from the full list once deposits are in. A student on an unranked list has no fixed place in line, and a fit with an unfilled need, such as an under-enrolled major, can count for more than the strength of the original application.
One year is a snapshot
Every figure in this report describes a single admission cycle, and waitlist outcomes can change dramatically from one year to the next. Three colleges illustrate how much.
| College | Earlier year | Admitted from waitlist | Later year | Admitted from waitlist |
| Tufts University | Fall 2021 | 0 | Fall 2024 | 354 of 991 (35.7%) |
| Tulane University | Fall 2024 | 432 of 2,290 (18.9%) | Fall 2025 | 64 of 3,158 (2.0%) |
| American University | Fall 2024 | 328 of 948 (34.6%) | Fall 2025 | 1,182 of 1,785 (66.2%) |
Source: Common Data Set filings for each college, section C2: Tufts University 2021-2022 and 2024-2025; Tulane University 2024-2025 and 2025-2026; American University 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. Counts show students admitted from the waitlist out of students who accepted a place.
Figure 8. Waitlist admit rates in two different years
Source: Common Data Set filings, section C2, for Tufts University, Tulane University, and American University, years as shown. Waitlist admit rate = students admitted from the waitlist divided by students accepting a place.
Tulane’s waitlist admit rate fell from 18.9 percent for fall 2024 to 2.0 percent for fall 2025, while the number of students waiting grew. American University moved in the opposite direction, from 34.6 percent to 66.2 percent. Tufts admitted nobody from its list for fall 2021 and 354 students for fall 2024. In each case, a student reading the prior year’s figures would have drawn the wrong conclusion about the next one.
The filings do not explain these swings. Yield is the likeliest factor: when more admitted students enroll than a college projected, it has little room left, and when fewer enroll, it turns to the list. Changes in a college’s admission strategy, such as admitting more or fewer students in the first round, could also play a part. Neither applicants nor colleges can forecast these outcomes in March, so a single year’s waitlist rate is a rough guide at best.
What the numbers mean for waitlisted students
Accept the waitlist place only at colleges you would attend if admitted. Declining a place you would not use frees you from a process that can run into the summer.
Commit to another college by May 1 or by that college’s stated enrollment deadline. Waitlist decisions often arrive in May or June, and some come later. A deposit at a college you are happy to attend is the plan; the waitlist is the possibility.
Read the offer in light of the college’s selectivity and history. Among colleges admitting under 20 percent of applicants, the median waitlist admit rate in fall 2024 was under 5 percent, and planning as though the answer will be no is sensible. Among colleges admitting half or more of their applicants, the median was about one in three, and staying engaged is worth the effort. Your own chances may differ from these college-wide figures.
Look at several years of a college’s figures when you can. The Tufts, Tulane, and American examples show how much a single cycle can mislead. A college that admitted few students from its list in one year may admit many the next, and the reverse can happen too.
If a college invites it, send one concise update that confirms you would enroll if admitted and adds anything new since you applied, such as strong senior grades or a significant achievement. A clear statement of intent is the most useful thing a waitlisted student can provide. Repeated messages add nothing.
Figures are drawn from 2024-2025 Common Data Set filings compiled by College Transitions for the fall 2024 entering class, sections C1, C2, and C21. Overall acceptance rates are rounded to the nearest whole percent as compiled. Of 362 colleges in the College Transitions database, 266 reported a waitlist and 207 reported complete fall 2024 waitlist figures with at least one student accepting a place; UC Irvine and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign were then excluded for data-quality reasons, leaving 205. Two-year comparisons for Tufts, Tulane, and American use each college’s own filings for the years shown.
